U.S. celebrities economics professor Nouriel Roubini, the global economy radical changes and shifts occurred , said: " The next process emerging economy countries with the global economy locomotive olacaktırö said. Roubini , Turkey's" commercial and financial relations diversification approach positive , rational and logical said .
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT AN ISLAND WITH A VERY APPROPRIATE
Roubini , Adana , Cukurova Young Businessmen's Association ( Cukurova GİAD ) organized by the " Knowledge is Power" was the guest on the traditional interview . "The Global Economic Developments and Reflections on Turkey " conference keynote speech Cukurova GİAD President Omar Faruk Sakarya, Roubini in Adana entertain their happiness expressed , Adana businessmen and industrialists U.S. economist comments and suggestions to benefit from said they would . In the country of the incentive system undergoing fundamental changes that reminds Sakarya, investors simply the initial grant advantages being attracted to other regions go in the long term interests would not be permanent and stable revenue Adana for a very affordable investment infrastructure have voiced .
TURKEY IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS BECOMING THE DAY
Then from the podium Roubini , Turkey , "the last 10 years, indicating a very important economic success and then a country will show " was considered . The world has changed a lot in , so play in the economy and new risks emerge attention Roubini , said:
" Around the world what is happening need to figure out . Positive developments , risks too. 2,008 in 2009, a huge economic crisis occurred. This is because you know, like in developed economies extreme financial consumption , banks take on excessive risk was due. In 2009 global recovery , financial recovery policy was introduced. Crisis to exit the emergency has been declared . however, recovery was slow. emerging markets much healthier recovery there . then emerging economies, the world's locomotives will be . global economy, emerging markets will be provided by . Transaction making , trade making power will be more . Political and geopolitical shifts , this place will be offering the . these kinds of economies of countries with the role and importance will increase . past 20-30 years the international economy in the policies of the G-7 as the club had . But it is no longer lost . Currently, international economic policies 10 advanced economies in the debate , was formed on 10 developing economies . One of them is China, India, Russia and Turkey along . Impact on regional and global economies of developing countries is increasing. Turkey's influence in the Middle East is growing more and more . "
" Turkey can play ROLE IN TIME WILL INCREASE "
Not only the economic power shift , indicating that the shift in political power Roubini , said :
" Developing , industrialized , high youth population in countries with serious economic growth will be . These countries, consumer society is becoming up . New homes, new infrastructure , commercial real estate , factories need to be built . Goods demand to rise, energy, food , water, industrial minerals the need is growing. global economy will change all that . its political , economic and social dimensions are available. these regions of Turkey will play a role will increase in time . Financial crisis then in developed markets recovery was slow. too much spending that developed countries reduce their debts to more saving should . Otherwise bankruptcy as the results may appear . , 2008 , 2009 economic slowdown , but then a strong economy was the return . Emerging market growth rates are very high . these countries, a remarkable population growth rate and young population of . these countries in the past years their economies and banking systems were more into a healthy structure . For this reason, the global economic crisis did not affect them too much . Thus, the recovery in this country happened so quickly . One of the radical changes ; formerly was experiencing financial crises in emerging markets . For example, in Mexico , Korea , Thailand, Russia , Turkey was experienced. But today the world has changed . Emerging market economies are much better compared to previous years . These countries' debt levels and lower levels of inflation . These countries are now the lender , creditor countries are becoming . Former location of the lender if the borrower has arrived. Such a shift in the global economy is experiencing. This is a revolution for the global economy . This force in the global economy is shifting from one place to another place is an indication . "
" OBAMA'S ELECTION USEFUL PURPOSE OF U.S. AND THE WORLD "
Happening in the United States have pointed out that the global economic impact of those Roubini, the country 's economic growth is very weak and risks, he said. Characterized in earlier 3 percent growth fell to 1.5 last year, indicating that the Roubini , households , banks , public debt that too for failing to economic recovery and job creation could not touched .
Obama's election the U.S. and the world be helpful in that said Roubini , "The United States is no longer alone can not decide . U.S. regional and global political issues while addressing cooperation with other countries has to do . Syria, Iraq, Egypt , especially in the Middle East Turkey and the U.S. ' good relations of cooperation, there . this situation will continue, " he said.
United States' most significant problem in financial trouble and that countries in this regard the Republicans and the Democrats decomposed voicing Roubini , "The United States is split . Republicans, the tax increase does not want to , Democrats are increasing taxes to cut public spending they want to . Convention still Republicans weight . Past 4 years each in conflict with the . But now, act together by public debt and budget deficits need to be reduced . U.S. in the coming period to do these? of course I got to do . Mali on the modifications needed economic stagnation can not refuse. extreme caution is necessary to move period . can not answer a lot of the political system had serious financial problems , "he said .
" POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN EU COUNTRIES "
EU countries are also very serious financial and banking problems that expressed Roubini , properties in Greece, Ireland , Portugal, Spain, Slovenia and Italy Cyprus's public debt, personal debt , budget deficit , competitiveness loss, trade and current account deficit as a serious problem noted that . Data in Europe, the economic recession of the EU countries to the heart demonstrated that the attention Roubini , "for example France and Germany surround themselves with countries from economic stagnation is affected and so is having difficulty . Public debt interest rates edge in countries rose very high , thus being sustainable outcomes . Recession still continues. herein are implementing austerity policies , not competitive , there is a crisis in banks and do not give credit , spending, business area does not occur , "he said .
4 important positive developments in recent years in the EU also noted that reveal the potential Roubini has continued as follows :
" The European Central Bank is very active role decided . , Italy and Spain 's bond buying decided . Europeans currently realized . Monetary union for the banking, financial, economic, political unity is required. This issue in the right direction are progressing . : Germany edges of the countries in much about was skeptical . stand-alone in this environment to survive not enough to work . European you together if you will be successful . at this point, the Europeans a crossroads came to the case . or more unity will be or dissolution , disintegration, fragmentation face to face with come. the European If the disintegration and decomposition of the Union , it is only Greece, Italy etc countries experiencing economic hardship , not countries like Germany , will also affect Turkey . "
With a population of 1.2 billion, China is the world's largest economy case , Asian, European and worldwide significance noted that Roubini , a 10 percent growth in this country is no longer sustainable , he said. In China, enough consumption , whether politically the next 10 years dominating the new leading choice is on the agenda attention Roubini , in this country, "structural reforms Do More will be faster ? Ö, " from exports to consumption is a turn Does ? Those questions wait for answers , stating that " this does not speed up reforms more private consumption at least 1-2 years after the investment boom in China led to a sharp economic decline açacakö warned .
WAITING FOR EMERGING ECONOMIES
Emerging markets is a strong trend in the last 10 years, but last year pointed out that a serious decline Roubini , said :
"Annual growth figures in China from 10 to 7 percent , from 4 percent to 5 percent in Russia and in Turkey fell from 8 percent to 3 percent . These situations are happening in many developing markets . This 3 reasons. emerging market economies last year, much grew up . Inflation to control the rate cuts have sought economic slowdown, a reason for this. Secondly, emerging markets , developed economies of the negativities were impressed . developed economies, growth is slow developing economies to export became obstacles. these countries the recession in terms of Turkey troublesome . Turkish companies in Europe exported goods in the so living in hardship. BRICS countries a structural problem is experiencing. past few years cause of the slowdown slow the structural reforms . this state capitalism, a form of We can say . EU , UK in recession , Japan to enter into a recession . Unfortunately, such a growth figure of 1.5 per cent with the U.S. against us. This case, the USA, Japan, EU etc. of the less developed countries to developing countries shows that they have the capability to export . Of course, in this case, the recession of developing countries such as Turkey , the EU has weakened its ability to export to countries like happening . Emerging markets experiencing financial distress is this that concerns about the emerging markets will ensure the growth of the private sector to slow down structural reforms . Public economics dominate . So China , Russia, Brazil , Argentina is experiencing negative economic growth . If you state to the private sector and many interventions necessary structural reforms unable these economies can not grow at the desired level . "
The world economy, geopolitical risks and uncertainties that , it in the U.S. Democrats and Republicans as the distinction between the emergence of the EU 17 economies , 17 countries 17 separate regions is seen as the Middle East on one side , Iran on the one hand between Israel and the tension of the influential is noted . Roubini , " I think Iran at some point compromise and nuclear bombs must stop . If Iran in 5-10 years, then bomb and if other countries also this bomb enters the field will have . Hopefully the political and diplomatic solution can be found ," he said .
"TURKEY TO THE ARAB SPRING MODEL COUNTRY exiting "
Arab spring in the Middle East last third of the country's political and economic stability can not catch Roubini reminded Muslims of all countries will be successful as a model example of Turkey , he said . Roubini, the " moderate Islamic government in Turkey, most of the population chose to vote . Malaysia, Indonesia a model . Many of the Arab countries in the Middle East make the transition to these models to capture economic stability mümkünö he said.
Roubini of Turkey in the region , in Syria civil war , Turkey and Syria , Turkey and Iran , Iraq and Turkey and between Turkey and Israel experienced the cause of problems in the region, consisting geopolitical significance arising from the tension is emphasized . Roubini , "the U.S. military from Iraq has left , Shiites, Sunnis , Arabs of instability . Algeria , starting from Afghanistan dating back to stability in the region is an issue. Turkey extremely positive can contribute . Grows , economic stability , political stability there . path to pursue moderate Islamic government in action . economic and political model could . Turkey can be a model for solving geopolitical tensions , "he said.
" GLOBAL ECONOMY AFFECT EVERYONE "
Turkey's place in the world, the global economic outlook also shared his observations about the Roubini, the following determinations were found :
" My first observation is; no country alone is not an island . All global economy part . Global economy, what is happening in each country is affected. Turkey's situation when we look at why economic slowdown was . Them one of the monetary tightening , inflation began overheating cooling , the EU ' in recession, Turkish firms ' export opportunities has restricted . Adana to the region is important because the border with Syria share . military instability has economic consequences . , commercial and financial relations is now much more difficult. because in these countries the turbulent state is experiencing. Turkey, the EU and the Middle East ' from the state are affected negatively. Turkey's current situation 10 years ago if we compare the Turkish economy today is much more powerful . then a banking crisis erupted , the debt crisis erupted . Today public debt lower than the Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves is higher, longer much more sophisticated variety of industry -based activities are spreading to the world . Moreover, Turkey's geographical location has a role to play as . There is a transition from west to east . Turkey's position is extremely critical . Global commodity flows through Turkey will be even partially . Ceyhan pipeline from Baghdad in extremely critical . Position in terms of establishing economic relations is of paramount importance . Began negotiations with the EU . Was considered positive . Positive , the process approach stemming from the narrow perspective of European negotiations has slowed down. Because some countries do not want Turkey in the EU . Turkey is a country with a large population , will also be useful for the EU . I think that's part of the EU countries , the participation of Turkey was to look hot and Turkey has led to interest in other areas , China , has led to the Far East . Economically rational approach , not just politically . Exhibiting slow growth in the EU economy, an aging population and there . Do you like part of a slow economy , the rapid growth places that do not want to be partof it? Turkey's approach positive , rational and logical. Commercial, financial diversification to associate such affirmative . Turkey is of strategic competitive advantage . "
" IN TURKEY ON CURRENT AND BRITTLENESS YES "
Resulting from the economic crisis in Turkey grew 5 percent on average each year over 10 years Roubini pointed out , he continued :
" Fiscal policies stable . However, Turkey still is facing some difficulties . Some shorter , some longer -term . Beginning of the economic growth fell , slowed down , while the unemployment rate is high. Secondly, countries, current account deficit in there , fragility there . These up large current account deficit countries, financial pressures will remain . £ for a long time was strong . for that reason, the current account deficit rose call. past year AUD lost value. Inflation rate targets set very high . you grow if you say , interest rates reduce the need. inflation to reduce the economy to grow monetary policy terms is not easy. Firstly, in terms of population young and growing population there . advantageous position in this respect . people educated, skilled , productive, efficient, to render human capital need . too much of young people there, but the state of their skills to increase their need to do so much there . equip with facilities such as health and social security be brought into productive individuals , human capital should be increased . Turkey has recently improved the business environment . To render effective and efficient private sector , countries need to invest more in infrastructure . One of Turkey's fragility , is an importer of oil and energy . Energy and oil , which increases the need for growth, inflation and trade balance have a negative impact on . Oil and natural gas from Baku to be a positive development for Turkey . Turkey using this oil can stimulate value-added sectors . It may be in an advantageous position in terms of the region . Turkey being an energy importer , exporter of energy may be using other energy derivatives . If you ask me, the negative outweigh the positive aspects in Turkey . Fitch therefore decided to increase the note . External risks ; in a critical region of Syria, Iran and Iraq and its neighbors . Political tensions that adversely affect international perspective . Turkey's direction is right, but the more stable of the reforms should continue , get stronger . Turkey is one of the things that makes this city great , I mean, are located in Adana . Adana ; One of the oldest established city in Turkey . There are gas and oil pipelines in the Middle East , close to the harbor , airports there . There are very deep and rich entrepreneurial group . Albeit young companies , established companies , albeit very strong , there are entrepreneurs . In the long term economic success made possible by competitive people . The private sector in the areas of financial sector and the service sector in this country , in this region , to invest in this city , also for the growth of Turkey , Adana Turkey spread the positive side , should be introduced . "
Global economic forecasts also sorts Roubini , "The last 15 years, the lessons we draw , good solid institutions, democratic government , with the economy to the outside world which , human and physical capital investment of the countries that have been successful and that it would be . No country alone are not islands . Sooner with the global economy becomes integrated into that succeeds. past 10 years the BRICS countries dealing with too much has been written about . longer state capitalism in the direction of development has happened . Brazil, Turkey , countries such as rings , democracy, human capital investment is doing . Turkey's position in the global economy will be a success story , "he said .
CONFERENCE PARTICIPANTS
Seyhan Hotel the meeting held in the TRNC Economy and Energy Minister Sunat Atun , Istanbul Governor Huseyin Avni Cos, the Metropolitan Municipality Deputy Chairman of the mind does not care , CHP Adana deputy Ümit Özgümüş , Adana Chamber of Industry ( ASO) President Sadi Sürenkök , Adana Treasurer Serdar Aksoy, Turkey Young businessmen Confederation ( TÜGİK ) Chairman Erkan Gural , Turkish Enterprise and Business Confederation (TURKONFED ) President Sulejman Onat , the Adana OSB President Bakr milkman , Adana Commodity exchange (ATB ) President Muammar hardworking, International Business and Professional Women Association ( BPW) Adana President Esra Ozden, Adana industrialists 'and Businessmen's Association ( ADSİAD ) President Süleyman Sönmez, as well as close to 200 Adana outside the industrialists, businessmen and national companies' CEOs, academics and economics writers including over 800 guests attended.